Options trading has risen to roughly 2.5x normal volumes as investors price two-way volatility around SpaceX following its Nasdaq-100 inclusion. Analysts say the larger index demand driver is likely the S&P 500 rather than the Nasdaq-100, but S&P inclusion is expected to be delayed at least a year because of earnings screening and the 12‑month listing rule. JEFFERIES analyst Jane Gibbons warns SpaceX’s low free float will curb the price impact of any index inclusion and limit its prospective ind

Options trading has risen to roughly 2.5x normal volumes as investors price two-way volatility around SpaceX following its Nasdaq-100 inclusion. Analysts say the larger index demand driver is likely the S&P 500 rather than the Nasdaq-100, but S&P inclusion is expected to be delayed at least a year because of earnings screening and the 12‑month listing rule. JEFFERIES analyst Jane Gibbons warns SpaceX’s low free float will curb the price impact of any index inclusion and limit its prospective index weight. Lock-up expiries over coming weeks and months could supply selling pressure that offsets index buying: some restrictions lift in tranches 70–135 days after the June 12 IPO, while CEO Elon Musk and other large holders remain locked for 366 days post‑IPO. Susquehanna calls this a short‑term overhang. Cboe’s Keenan says recent options activity reflects hedging of downside risk and speculative rebalancing ahead of index trades.