After the Islamabad MoU, substantive US–Iran talks have opened, but CITIC Securities says the main near-term risk is domestic political pressure in the US, Israel and Iran rather than an immediate war. Keeping the Strait of Hormuz fully open faces significant hurdles; apart from proxy-force dynamics, meaningful progress on the nuclear file within 60 days is unlikely and a prolonged stalemate is possible — lowering the odds of rapid large-scale conflict but also of a stable agreement. Strategical

After the Islamabad MoU, substantive US–Iran talks have opened, but CITIC Securities says the main near-term risk is domestic political pressure in the US, Israel and Iran rather than an immediate war. Keeping the Strait of Hormuz fully open faces significant hurdles; apart from proxy-force dynamics, meaningful progress on the nuclear file within 60 days is unlikely and a prolonged stalemate is possible — lowering the odds of rapid large-scale conflict but also of a stable agreement. Strategically, the episode will push Gulf states back toward a security-first governance posture since the Arab Spring while sharpening incentives for economic diversification, potentially creating cooperation opportunities for China in traditional and new energy and the digital economy.