After the Islamabad MoU, substantive US–Iran talks have opened, but CITIC Securities says the main near-term risk is domestic political pressure in the US, Israel and Iran rather than an immediate war. Keeping the Strait of Hormuz fully open faces significant hurdles; apart from proxy-force dynamics, meaningful progress on the nuclear file within 60 days is unlikely and a prolonged stalemate is possible — lowering the odds of rapid large-scale conflict but also of a stable agreement. Strategical

The second draft amendment to China's Trademark Law was submitted for review at the 14th NPC Standing Committee's 23rd meeting on June 23. The draft escalates penalties for using registered trademarks in ways that mislead the public, citing cases where trademarks are disguised as product ingredients or production processes. Enforcement authorities may order rectification within a time limit. Where illegal business turnover is at least 50,000 yuan, fines may reach up to five times that turnover; where there is no illegal turnover or turnover is under 50,000 yuan, fines may be imposed up to 250,000 yuan. The draft also grants any organization or individual the right to file complaints or reports with trademark enforcement authorities over misleading use of registered trademarks.

港股汽车股午后走低，小鹏集团(09868.HK)、理想汽车(02015.HK)跌超4%，比亚迪股份(01211.HK)跌超3%，零跑汽车(09863.HK)跌超2%。