After the Islamabad MoU, substantive US–Iran talks have opened, but CITIC
Securities says the main near-term risk is domestic political pressure in the
US, Israel and Iran rather than an immediate war. Keeping the Strait of Hormuz
fully open faces significant hurdles; apart from proxy-force dynamics,
meaningful progress on the nuclear file within 60 days is unlikely and a
prolonged stalemate is possible — lowering the odds of rapid large-scale
conflict but also of a stable agreement. Strategically, the episode will push
Gulf states back toward a security-first governance posture since the Arab
Spring while sharpening incentives for economic diversification, potentially
creating cooperation opportunities for China in traditional and new energy and
the digital economy.
