The weak non-farm payrolls data and downward revision of the previous figure directly impacted market expectations of employment resilience, causing short-term interest rates to fall more rapidly. The decline in 2-year and 3-year Treasury yields was

2026-07-02

The weak non-farm payrolls data and downward revision of the previous figure directly impacted market expectations of employment resilience, causing short-term interest rates to fall more rapidly. The decline in 2-year and 3-year Treasury yields was significantly greater than that of long-term yields, indicating that the main trading theme is not "pricing a long-term recession," but rather a decreasing necessity for the Federal Reserve to further raise interest rates. The decline in the unemployment rate and the lack of a significant slowdown in wage growth prevented long-term yields from falling sharply, making this a more like a preemptive move to meet easing expectations, resulting in a slightly steeper yield curve.