Morgan Stanley says its bullish H2 gold target of $5,200/oz would be harder to
achieve without a material rebound in ETF inflows. The bank’s analysts say
central-bank buying may continue, but ETF flows are more sensitive to shifts in
Fed policy expectations, real yields and the dollar, making ETF demand the
missing link. Morgan Stanley remains constructive on gold structurally as easing
Middle East tensions and lower oil curb inflation risks, but a hawkish Fed tone
at the recent meeting—which reinforces a higher‑for‑longer rate
outlook—increases the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets.
