Morgan Stanley says its bullish H2 gold target of $5,200/oz would be harder to achieve without a material rebound in ETF inflows. The bank’s analysts say central-bank buying may continue, but ETF flows are more sensitive to shifts in Fed policy expectations, real yields and the dollar, making ETF demand the missing link. Morgan Stanley remains constructive on gold structurally as easing Middle East tensions and lower oil curb inflation risks, but a hawkish Fed tone at the recent meeting—which re

Morgan Stanley says its bullish H2 gold target of $5,200/oz would be harder to achieve without a material rebound in ETF inflows. The bank’s analysts say central-bank buying may continue, but ETF flows are more sensitive to shifts in Fed policy expectations, real yields and the dollar, making ETF demand the missing link. Morgan Stanley remains constructive on gold structurally as easing Middle East tensions and lower oil curb inflation risks, but a hawkish Fed tone at the recent meeting—which reinforces a higher‑for‑longer rate outlook—increases the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets.