Options trading has risen to roughly 2.5x normal volumes as investors price
two-way volatility around SpaceX following its Nasdaq-100 inclusion. Analysts
say the larger index demand driver is likely the S&P 500 rather than the
Nasdaq-100, but S&P inclusion is expected to be delayed at least a year because
of earnings screening and the 12‑month listing rule. JEFFERIES analyst Jane
Gibbons warns SpaceX’s low free float will curb the price impact of any index
inclusion and limit its prospective index weight. Lock-up expiries over coming
weeks and months could supply selling pressure that offsets index buying: some
restrictions lift in tranches 70–135 days after the June 12 IPO, while CEO Elon
Musk and other large holders remain locked for 366 days post‑IPO. Susquehanna
calls this a short‑term overhang. Cboe’s Keenan says recent options activity
reflects hedging of downside risk and speculative rebalancing ahead of index
trades.
