CHINA FOREIGN MINISTRY, ON IRAN WAR CEASEFIRE: CHINA WELCOMES THE CEASEFIRE ARRANGEMENTS

【期貨熱點追蹤】LME鋁價上漲，160萬噸鋁產能恐“停擺”一年，突發停產推高LME鋁現貨升水至17年高位，全球鋁市正滑向史詩級缺口？

- 2026 WTI: $87.41 (raised); Brent: $96 (raised) - 2027 WTI: $72.43; Brent: $76.09 - Global supply 2026: 104.3M bpd (cut); demand: 104.6M (cut) - Global demand 2027: 106.2M bpd (slightly lower forecast) - U.S. oil output: 13.64M bpd (Apr), 13.59M (May); 2026: 13.51M (cut), 2027: 13.95M - U.S. gas output: ~120.3 bcfd (Apr/May); 2026: 109.6 bcfd, 2027: 112.6 bcfd - U.S. gasoline $4.30/gal, diesel $5.80/gal in April - Hormuz-related supply losses to reach 9.1M bpd in April - Brent seen peaking at $115/bbl in Q2 2026 - Limited scope to raise U.S. LNG exports due to maintenance, ramp-ups, authorizations - Assumes Middle East conflict ends after April; Strait of Hormuz traffic gradually resumes, though full restoration will take months