2026-09-23

9月22日，巴菲特指数（沪深300市值/GDP）连升三日至93.11%，近期基本在年内波动的中间区域震荡。股债性价比指标——沪深300指数股权风险溢价（ERP）为5.75%，与昨日持平，依然处于偏高位置；从大周期来看，该指标仍处在过去四年波动区间中间区域，暗示目前股市相对国债收益的吸引力处于中性偏高水平。 -------- 注：1、巴菲特指数是通过将股市总市值和GDP来比较，判断目前股市是否高估，通常70-100%为正常估值，低于该区间为低估，高于该区间为高估。 2、沪深300指数风险溢价（ERP）主要对比沪深300收益和国债收益率，统计近10年数据可以发现该指标和股指有明显反向关系，每次股市都处于底部区域时，风险溢价均超过6%，也就是当ERP≥6%，股市有投资性价比，而当ERP≤4%时，则股市往往接近或处于阶段性高点，投资性价比低甚至要小心回调风险。

9月22日，巴菲特指数（沪深300市值/GDP）连升三日至93.11%，近期基本在年内波动的中间区域震荡。股债性价比指标——沪深300指数股权风险溢价（ERP）为5.75%，与昨日持平，依然处于偏高位置；从大周期来看，该指标仍处在过去四年波动区间中间区域，暗示目前股市相对国债收益的吸引力处于中性偏高水平。 -------- 注：1、巴菲特指数是通过将股市总市值和GDP来比较，判断目前股市是否高估，通常70-100%为正常估值，低于该区间为低估，高于该区间为高估。 2、沪深300指数风险溢价（ERP）主要对比沪深300收益和国债收益率，统计近10年数据可以发现该指标和股指有明显反向关系，每次股市都处于底部区域时，风险溢价均超过6%，也就是当ERP≥6%，股市有投资性价比，而当ERP≤4%时，则股市往往接近或处于阶段性高点，投资性价比低甚至要小心回调风险。

2026-09-23

Market sources: South Korea's Lee to meet US President Trump during the United Nations General Assembly.

Market sources: South Korea's Lee to meet US President Trump during the United Nations General Assembly.

2026-09-23

市场消息：韩国总统李在明将在联合国大会期间与美国总统特朗普举行会晤。

市场消息：韩国总统李在明将在联合国大会期间与美国总统特朗普举行会晤。

2026-09-23

Galaxy Securities said in a Sept. 23 report the Fed hiked 25bps to 3.75%–4.00% on Sept. 16, the first increase since July 2023. A systemic rise in risk-free rates is lifting discount rates beyond the policy rate and compressing equity P/Es, disproportionately hitting high-valuation growth stocks dependent on distant cash flows. The AI narrative remains strong, but pricing is shifting from long‑term visions to near‑term realization. On the first trading day after the hike, storage, CPUs, foundry

Galaxy Securities said in a Sept. 23 report the Fed hiked 25bps to 3.75%–4.00% on Sept. 16, the first increase since July 2023. A systemic rise in risk-free rates is lifting discount rates beyond the policy rate and compressing equity P/Es, disproportionately hitting high-valuation growth stocks dependent on distant cash flows. The AI narrative remains strong, but pricing is shifting from long‑term visions to near‑term realization. On the first trading day after the hike, storage, CPUs, foundry and optical‑interconnect segments outperformed; strong current earnings and short investment payback make these compute‑hardware nodes less sensitive to higher rates. Valuation differentiation is accelerating: hardware with verified cash flows and earnings (advanced process, memory, optical interconnect, equipment and materials) is benefiting, while narrative‑driven, unprofitable names are being further squeezed.

2026-09-23

Omdia data show global AI glasses shipments reached 4.2 mln units in 1H 2026, up 127% YoY. The category remains nascent; as the market expands from a low base growth is gradually stabilizing. Competition among different frame designs is intensifying and user privacy concerns are rising, making the market environment more complex.

Omdia data show global AI glasses shipments reached 4.2 mln units in 1H 2026, up 127% YoY. The category remains nascent; as the market expands from a low base growth is gradually stabilizing. Competition among different frame designs is intensifying and user privacy concerns are rising, making the market environment more complex.

2026-09-23

9月22日A股低于3%换手率股票连降三日至70.52%，高于5%换手率股票占比从上周刷新的两年低点回升至15.42%，继续向阈值水平靠近；整体来看，换手率暂时止跌，留意能否打破7月以来震荡下行趋势。 -------- 注：1、当换手率低于3%的股票占比上升接近中长期的高位，尤其是接近历史高位附近（图中虚线，图为反转走势）时，意味着市场很有可能遇到一个阶段低点，容易产生反转或反弹。 2、当高换手率高于5%的股票占市场总数比例保持在阈值（图中虚线）上方，市场才会出现强的赚钱效应，使得行情具有持续性。牛市的时候，该指标会持续保持在阈值上方，市场迎来普涨行情；而熊市的时候，该指标大多时候在阈值下方，偶尔超过阈值反而要小心冲高回落的风险。

9月22日A股低于3%换手率股票连降三日至70.52%，高于5%换手率股票占比从上周刷新的两年低点回升至15.42%，继续向阈值水平靠近；整体来看，换手率暂时止跌，留意能否打破7月以来震荡下行趋势。 -------- 注：1、当换手率低于3%的股票占比上升接近中长期的高位，尤其是接近历史高位附近（图中虚线，图为反转走势）时，意味着市场很有可能遇到一个阶段低点，容易产生反转或反弹。 2、当高换手率高于5%的股票占市场总数比例保持在阈值（图中虚线）上方，市场才会出现强的赚钱效应，使得行情具有持续性。牛市的时候，该指标会持续保持在阈值上方，市场迎来普涨行情；而熊市的时候，该指标大多时候在阈值下方，偶尔超过阈值反而要小心冲高回落的风险。