Canada unemployment rose to 6.7% in October as labour force growth outpaced a small decline in employment. Wholesale and retail payrolls fell 28.8k in October and are down 113.1k YoY, with losses concentrated in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia. Despite the softer labour market, the Bank of Canada hiked last week citing elevated inflation risks. Governor Macklem said the BOC has no pre-set path and will decide policy meeting-by-meeting. Overnight index swaps priced roughly a 40% chance of a

Canada unemployment rose to 6.7% in October as labour force growth outpaced a small decline in employment. Wholesale and retail payrolls fell 28.8k in October and are down 113.1k YoY, with losses concentrated in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia. Despite the softer labour market, the Bank of Canada hiked last week citing elevated inflation risks. Governor Macklem said the BOC has no pre-set path and will decide policy meeting-by-meeting. Overnight index swaps priced roughly a 40% chance of a December hike before the jobs release. The BOC flagged Middle East energy shocks as an upside risk to inflation even as US tariffs drag on growth, leaving Canada’s growth outlook set to slow.