Canada unemployment rose to 6.7% in October as labor force growth outpaced a
small decline in employment. Wholesale and retail payrolls fell 28.8k in October
and are down 113.1k YoY, with losses concentrated in Ontario, Quebec and Britain
Columbia. Despite the softer labor market, the Bank of Canada hiked last week
citing elevated inflation risks. Governor Macklem said the BOC has no pre-set
path and will decide policy meeting-by-meeting. Overnight index swaps priced
roughly a 40% chance of a December hike before the jobs release. The BOC flagged
Middle East energy shocks as an upside risk to inflation even as US tariffs drag
on growth, leaving Canada’s growth outlook set to slow.
