白酒整体需求仍偏谨慎，而且品牌、地区和消费场景之间的分化正在扩大。安徽好于去年、河南大致稳定，江苏、山东、四川仍有压力；宴席需求明显比商务和送礼需求更有韧性。茅台在主要品牌中表现相对突出，飞天批价继续上涨、渠道库存很低；五粮液正在主动降低库存，而老窖及部分次高端品牌面临更明显压力。 今年中秋和国庆分开，使中秋后的第二轮补货成为重要观察窗口。高盛认为，9月28—29日飞天茅台和普五批发价能否保持稳定，将是判断国庆补货意愿的一个关键指标。（不同白酒股预测见下图，高盛9月18日报告）

夜盘收跌0.43%，报24709点，低水125点。

South African Reserve Bank raised its policy rate by 25bps to 7.25%, the second increase this year, citing renewed price pressures from the Iran and Ukraine wars. The six-member MPC voted unanimously; the move matched market expectations. Governor said the bank has taken a cautious approach amid high uncertainty but remains focused on price stability and will aim to bring inflation back to 3% as current shocks fade. The rand recovered some earlier losses after the announcement.