China’s 15th Five-Year Plan for human resources and social security, published July 9, says urban new employment will remain sizable over the next five years. Targets include re-employing 25.0 mln urban unemployed, placing 6.5 mln people with employment difficulties into jobs, and keeping the surveyed urban unemployment rate at or below 5.5%. The plan calls for more than 50.0 mln subsidized vocational-training enrollments, including 17.5 mln for migrant workers.

BofA economists say markets largely price a 25bp Bank of Korea hike on July 16, but the central bank’s commentary on won weakness may matter more than the rate move itself. Persistent won depreciation is keeping inflation elevated despite lower oil and repeated official warnings; overseas equity outflows and FX volatility strengthen the case for further policy normalization, though BofA does not treat back-to-back hikes as its base case. Investors will watch for whether the Bank of Korea signals greater concern about rising house prices and leveraged-ETF trading as financial stability risks.

伊朗冲突爆发以来，燃油价格飙升，据美国汽车协会(AAA)数据，美国汽油平均价格比一年前上涨了近四分之一，达到每加仑3.8美元，而柴油价格上涨了30%，达到每加仑4.8美元。 近段时间以来，尽管原油价格有所降温，但是只要霍尔木兹海峡局势不明朗，燃油价格预计就会维持在高位。专家表示，即使海湾地区的石油供应持续增加，石油也需要时间才能进入成品油市场，并降低汽油、柴油和其他燃料的价格。能源咨询公司 Enverus的分析师 Carl Larry说，“成品油价格和原油价格之间存在巨大差距，问题的关键在于炼油能力有限，而原油产量即使在当前情况下也几乎是无限的。成品油价格将会持续走高。” 全球燃料供应进一步面临来自俄罗斯的压力。此前，乌克兰无人机袭击了俄罗斯的炼油厂，引发了俄罗斯自苏联解体以来最严重的燃料危机，之后作为世界第二大柴油出口国的俄罗斯禁止了柴油出口。休斯顿大学能源研究员埃德·赫尔斯表示，“目前形势动荡，波动性会导致价格溢价，不确定性也会增加成本。”