BofA economists say markets largely price a 25bp Bank of Korea hike on July 16, but the central bank’s commentary on won weakness may matter more than the rate move itself. Persistent won depreciation is keeping inflation elevated despite lower oil and repeated official warnings; overseas equity outflows and FX volatility strengthen the case for further policy normalization, though BofA does not treat back-to-back hikes as its base case. Investors will watch for whether the Bank of Korea signals

BofA economists say markets largely price a 25bp Bank of Korea hike on July 16, but the central bank’s commentary on won weakness may matter more than the rate move itself. Persistent won depreciation is keeping inflation elevated despite lower oil and repeated official warnings; overseas equity outflows and FX volatility strengthen the case for further policy normalization, though BofA does not treat back-to-back hikes as its base case. Investors will watch for whether the Bank of Korea signals greater concern about rising house prices and leveraged-ETF trading as financial stability risks.