Rising energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz have prompted UBS to lower its oil-price forecasts. UBS now expects Brent to average $84/bbl this year, down $9/bbl from its prior view, and has cut its 2027 Brent forecast to $75/bbl from $85. The bank cites reduced geopolitical risk and a rapid supply rebound that drove prices lower than expected. UBS sees a modest H2 rebound to around $80/bbl as Gulf floating storage normalizes and demand recovers, but says the path to normalization may be bump

Rising energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz have prompted UBS to lower its oil-price forecasts. UBS now expects Brent to average $84/bbl this year, down $9/bbl from its prior view, and has cut its 2027 Brent forecast to $75/bbl from $85. The bank cites reduced geopolitical risk and a rapid supply rebound that drove prices lower than expected. UBS sees a modest H2 rebound to around $80/bbl as Gulf floating storage normalizes and demand recovers, but says the path to normalization may be bumpy and risk premia could remain elevated. Inventory restocking should support prices through end‑2027, though the required rebuild is smaller than its earlier 1 billion‑barrel estimate.