Rising energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz have prompted UBS to lower its
oil-price forecasts. UBS now expects Brent to average $84/bbl this year, down
$9/bbl from its prior view, and has cut its 2027 Brent forecast to $75/bbl from
$85. The bank cites reduced geopolitical risk and a rapid supply rebound that
drove prices lower than expected. UBS sees a modest H2 rebound to around $80/bbl
as Gulf floating storage normalizes and demand recovers, but says the path to
normalization may be bumpy and risk premia could remain elevated. Inventory
restocking should support prices through end‑2027, though the required rebuild
is smaller than its earlier 1 billion‑barrel estimate.
