Treasurer Jim Chalmers said Australia’s headline inflation is expected to peak
near 4.25% mid-year, below prior forecasts, as lower oil prices and progress in
Middle East talks support disinflation. He said he hopes a ceasefire will hold
and warned Middle East uncertainty—particularly risks around the Strait of
Hormuz—keeps inflation higher than expected, although recent progress has been
more pronounced than anticipated. Chalmers declined to give a core inflation
forecast—the RBA’s key policy metric—but said core inflation is also "moving
forward" and that Treasury will update its forecasts mid-year.
