Treasurer Jim Chalmers said Australia’s headline inflation is expected to peak near 4.25% mid-year, below prior forecasts, as lower oil prices and progress in Middle East talks support disinflation. He said he hopes a ceasefire will hold and warned Middle East uncertainty—particularly risks around the Strait of Hormuz—keeps inflation higher than expected, although recent progress has been more pronounced than anticipated. Chalmers declined to give a core inflation forecast—the RBA’s key policy m

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said Australia’s headline inflation is expected to peak near 4.25% mid-year, below prior forecasts, as lower oil prices and progress in Middle East talks support disinflation. He said he hopes a ceasefire will hold and warned Middle East uncertainty—particularly risks around the Strait of Hormuz—keeps inflation higher than expected, although recent progress has been more pronounced than anticipated. Chalmers declined to give a core inflation forecast—the RBA’s key policy metric—but said core inflation is also "moving forward" and that Treasury will update its forecasts mid-year.