Traders on prediction platform Kalshi increased bets on a US-Iran nuclear agreement after an Axios report said the two countries were nearing a deal framework tied to ending the Middle East conflict. Kalshi traders now assign a 58% probability that a nuclear deal will be reached by 2027 and a 47% chance by September. The odds remain below mid-April levels, when optimism around negotiations pushed probabilities above 70% for a deal by June. The contract would resolve if the US announces, signs or

Traders on prediction platform Kalshi increased bets on a US-Iran nuclear agreement after an Axios report said the two countries were nearing a deal framework tied to ending the Middle East conflict. Kalshi traders now assign a 58% probability that a nuclear deal will be reached by 2027 and a 47% chance by September. The odds remain below mid-April levels, when optimism around negotiations pushed probabilities above 70% for a deal by June. The contract would resolve if the US announces, signs or accepts an agreement regarding Iran’s nuclear program.