Traders on prediction platform Kalshi increased bets on a US-Iran nuclear
agreement after an Axios report said the two countries were nearing a deal
framework tied to ending the Middle East conflict. Kalshi traders now assign a
58% probability that a nuclear deal will be reached by 2027 and a 47% chance by
September. The odds remain below mid-April levels, when optimism around
negotiations pushed probabilities above 70% for a deal by June. The contract
would resolve if the US announces, signs or accepts an agreement regarding
Iran’s nuclear program.
