EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook projects U.S. crude inventories will increase in 2027 as net imports rise and U.S. oil production climbs to a record 14.3 mln b/d.

Fed official LOGAN said excess inflation is unacceptable and the Fed may need to tighten faster this winter than it has to date. He said the Fed will likely need at least two more 25bps hikes and that pausing to reassess after those two would be reasonable. He said the policy rate remains at least 50bps below a mildly restrictive level. Gradual policy adjustment can reduce the risk of economic activity weakening more than necessary. He added wartime energy disruptions and tariffs are not the only sources of price pressure and that broad-based upward price pressures could persist.

About 55% of economists surveyed (56 of 101) expect a December rate hike to mark the end of the current tightening cycle, roughly unchanged from last month. The other 45 respondents expect at least two more Fed hikes, including a majority of primary dealers — a view consistent with market pricing; they said inflation risks have not changed since the US midterms. Political shifts are unlikely to quickly ease inflation pressures. Although markets hope a nearly nine-month Middle East conflict will resolve and oil futures have fallen over 22% from late-October highs, inflationary pressure persists. A strong labor market, resilient growth and inflation running above the Fed’s 2% target for nearly six years argue that further tightening may be necessary. Wells Fargo chief economist Tom Porcelli said: "The Fed's decision depends on upcoming inflation data, which will prompt it to hike again. In fact, the Fed had full justification to raise rates at the October meeting."