Markets expect higher Brazilian rates after President Lula’s re-election raised prospect of larger public spending and upward pressure on inflation. A weekly survey by economists for the Brazil central bank showed expected Selic at 13.75% next month, up from 13.5% previously; economists have raised end-2026 rate expectations for a second consecutive week. Analysts lifted their year‑end inflation forecast to 4.9% from 4.76%, well above the 3% target. Lula’s surprise win has reversed investor hope

Markets expect higher Brazilian rates after President Lula’s re-election raised prospect of larger public spending and upward pressure on inflation. A weekly survey by economists for the Brazil central bank showed expected Selic at 13.75% next month, up from 13.5% previously; economists have raised end-2026 rate expectations for a second consecutive week. Analysts lifted their year‑end inflation forecast to 4.9% from 4.76%, well above the 3% target. Lula’s surprise win has reversed investor hopes of a policy shift, triggering sharp losses in the Brazilian real and equities and adding fiscal and currency weakness risks that could further accelerate inflation. Last week the central bank paused its easing cycle, holding Selic at 13.75% after months of cuts and warning of slowing growth, accelerating inflation and high uncertainty.