BofA expects the ECB to raise rates 25bp in December, arguing a fresh energy shock will keep euro-area inflation above the ECB’s target for longer. Recent European gas and oil price gains and persistent geopolitical tensions—including the Iran conflict—could keep energy markets tight through the winter demand peak. BofA says growth may hold but will likely soften, doubts significant second‑round effects have emerged, and notes the ECB could move in October only if inflation prints come in materi

BofA expects the ECB to raise rates 25bp in December, arguing a fresh energy shock will keep euro-area inflation above the ECB’s target for longer. Recent European gas and oil price gains and persistent geopolitical tensions—including the Iran conflict—could keep energy markets tight through the winter demand peak. BofA says growth may hold but will likely soften, doubts significant second‑round effects have emerged, and notes the ECB could move in October only if inflation prints come in materially higher.