SMBC Nikko Securities strategist Yoshimasa Maruyama said the Bank of Japan could raise rates every four to five months. The BOJ raised its policy rate to 1.25% last Friday, just three months after the prior hike. Maruyama warned too-rapid tightening could pose downside risk to the economy; if upside inflation risks rise sharply, the BOJ could shorten intervals to three months. SMBC Nikko expects further BOJ hikes in January and June next year, lifting the terminal rate to 1.75%.

2026-09-24

SMBC Nikko Securities strategist Yoshimasa Maruyama said the Bank of Japan could raise rates every four to five months. The BOJ raised its policy rate to 1.25% last Friday, just three months after the prior hike. Maruyama warned too-rapid tightening could pose downside risk to the economy; if upside inflation risks rise sharply, the BOJ could shorten intervals to three months. SMBC Nikko expects further BOJ hikes in January and June next year, lifting the terminal rate to 1.75%.