Fitch expects the oil market to return to a large surplus in 2027. The agency
still sees prices falling next year but has raised its 2027 price forecast to
$70/bbl from $65/bbl, citing a longer-than-expected Middle East conflict and a
higher geopolitical risk premium. Analysts Brian Coulton and Alex Muscatelli say
forecasts carry high uncertainty; a US–Iran agreement in Q1 2027 could shift
price determination back toward supply-demand fundamentals. Upside risk:
sustained geopolitical uncertainty could lift next year’s average to $85/bbl;
downside risk: rapid supply restoration could push it to $55/bbl.
