美國-丹麥-格陵蘭島協議：美國可以在格陵蘭島建立“金色穹頂”防禦系統。

Haidar, founder and CIO of Haidar Capital Management, said the Fed may need more rate hikes than currently priced to drive inflation back to target. The Fed last week raised the federal funds target range 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% and signaled another hike this year; money markets price three 25bp hikes over the next 12 months. Haidar said the market’s reaction to the September dot plot was hawkish, suggesting markets remain overly optimistic about the necessity of tightening. He expects the FOMC to raise rates at least in Dec 2026 and Mar 2027, and said 4–6 additional hikes would likely be required to have a meaningful impact on inflation.

Shenwan Hongyuan research says the core trading range for the 10-year US Treasury yield in H2 is likely 4.5%–5%, with inflation expectations linked to oil prices the dominant short-term driver. In an optimistic case yields could fall toward about 4.3%; in a downside case they could break above 5%. The dollar index is short-term positively correlated with oil during supply shocks—safe-haven flows and relative fundamentals tend to lift the dollar with oil—and would face further upside if a US‑Iran conflict escalates; after tensions ease the dollar’s core range could revert to 97–103. Dollar trend strength typically accompanies sustained Fed tightening; September’s hike is done, and if future moves are isolated rather than a trend tightening cycle, dollar appreciation risk is more contained. Medium-term, US term premium is likelier to rise than fall as risks shift from cyclical volatility to fiscal sustainability concerns; the Fed faces a threefold challenge of inflation persistence, weak employment, and automatic long-end tightening amid a global savings imbalance. Current US equity valuations are not low; larger or more persistent shocks would inflict greater downside on equity prices.