Military and defense analyst Alex Alfirraz Scheers said Iran is prepared to accept a return to large-scale conflict with the United States if control of the Strait of Hormuz requires it. He said the waterway is both a wartime prize and Iran's largest bargaining chip in future negotiations with the US. Scheers added: "The US also faces pressure from Gulf Cooperation Council states to ensure the Strait of Hormuz does not become Iran's exclusive waterway." He said a memorandum of understanding may

Bernstein analysts say European beverage stocks are showing a solid rebound. Beer names Carlsberg and Heineken have risen as volumes show signs of recovery; Rémy Cointreau advanced after a well-received recovery plan. Spirits majors Diageo and Pernod Ricard are lagging. Bernstein prefers beer over spirits given continued weakness in the key US spirits market. Analysts add that valuations across the group look attractive at current levels.

Since the Iran conflict began US retail fuel has surged: AAA shows regular gasoline about 25% higher YoY at $3.80/gal and diesel up 30% at $4.80/gal. Crude has eased recently, but uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz is likely to keep refined fuel prices firm because additional Gulf crude supply takes time to reach product markets. Analysts point to limited refining capacity widening the crude–product spread; Enverus analyst Carl Larry says refinery bottlenecks mean product prices will remain elevated. Global fuel supply is further strained after Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries triggered a severe domestic fuel shortage and Moscow subsequently banned diesel exports; Russia had been the world’s No.2 diesel exporter. University of Houston energy researcher Ed Hirs says current volatility is creating price premia and higher costs.