After being added to the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, SpaceX shares plunged about 35%
from their recent peak to below $147 the following day, nearly wiping out IPO
gains. The company’s market cap is about $1.9 trillion while 2025 revenue is
roughly $18.7 billion, implying a valuation near 100x 2025 sales. Starlink
accounts for more than $11 billion of 2025 revenue, roughly 60% of the total,
but SpaceX remains loss-making: a $4.9 billion loss in 2025 and a $4.3 billion
loss in Q1 2026, alongside continued heavy capex for Starship and investments in
xAI. Current prices already price in sustained Starlink growth, Starship
progress and AI returns; any setback in those drivers would pose downside risk.
Despite the pullback, the stock is still expensive and lacks a margin of safety
given multibillion-dollar losses; the recommended approach is to wait for
Starlink to demonstrate profits that exceed ongoing spending.
