Morgan Stanley cut Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) target price by 29% to HKD32 from
HKD45 and maintained an Overweight rating, citing lower EV delivery assumptions
and weaker smartphone sales that slow MAU growth and trim its internet-services
valuation. MS now projects ~100,000 EV deliveries in 2Q 2026 and ~180,000 in 1H
2026—about 33% of Xiaomi’s 550,000 full-year target—and says the company is
unlikely to hit the 550,000 target even with planned H2 product launches. The
bank lowered its EV delivery forecast for this year to 500,000 from 580,000 and
cut the 2027 forecast to 700,000 from 750,000. MS also estimates Xiaomi’s
AI-related investments are conservatively worth RMB32 billion and could re-rate
materially if profit growth resumes.
