Mehr news agency reports explosions in Bandar Abbas in southern Iran and activation of local air-defence systems.

MUFG analyst Derek Halpenny said the Fed will release minutes from the June FOMC tonight but warned against over-interpreting details because the pre-June meeting backdrop differs materially from today. The FOMC dot plot was likely compiled in the week to June 12 and would not reflect a hypothetical meeting held now — in particular it would not show nine participants favoring hikes. On that basis he says Overnight Index Swap pricing for further hikes looks rich. The market still prices roughly a 30% chance of a July 29 rate hike; given recent softening in labor-market data, Halpenny views that as too high. By March 2027 the market has priced nearly 40bp of tightening, but MUFG expects cuts are more likely than additional hikes by then.

美國中央司令部：美軍對海峽內及周邊地區的伊朗防空系統、指揮控制網絡、沿海雷達站、反艦導彈能力以及伊斯蘭革命衛隊60多艘小艇實施了打擊，旨在削弱伊朗繼續襲擊經由這一國際貿易走廊的國際商船的能力。