Analyst Emily Scarlet says Micron’s results and vendor disclosures point to a
severe memory shortage that has driven prices higher, with AI data centers
consuming large wafer capacity. Producing 1GB of HBM (high-bandwidth memory used
in AI chips) requires roughly three times the wafer area of standard memory, and
Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron have shifted lines toward higher‑margin HBM,
tightening supply of commodity DRAM. The shortage has boosted shares—Micron up
about 242% year‑to‑date, SK Hynix up about 770% over 12 months. New memory
capacity is unlikely to come online before 1H 2027, so Scarlet sees the
supply-driven price cycle protected through 2026 and into 1H 2027. Possible
window to reduce memory sector exposure is mid‑2027 to 2028; if Micron’s Idaho
fab and Korea’s Yongin cluster reach volume production by late‑2027 and AI
demand cools, a supply glut in 2028–29 is plausible.
