NZIER’s shadow monetary policy committee was nearly split but narrowly preferred the RBNZ leave the OCR at 2.25% in July, describing the hold as a close call versus a 25bp hike. Those favoring an earlier lift to neutral cited rising inflation; opponents flagged weak demand and elevated unemployment as reasons for caution. Committee members were divided on the oil-price shock—some saw its inflationary impact as transitory and fading, others warned of more persistent price pressure. Several member

NZIER’s shadow monetary policy committee was nearly split but narrowly preferred the RBNZ leave the OCR at 2.25% in July, describing the hold as a close call versus a 25bp hike. Those favoring an earlier lift to neutral cited rising inflation; opponents flagged weak demand and elevated unemployment as reasons for caution. Committee members were divided on the oil-price shock—some saw its inflationary impact as transitory and fading, others warned of more persistent price pressure. Several members said the next key policy assessment point is the Q2 CPI release. The panel unanimously judged the OCR should reach 3.0–3.25% over the next year and advocated a gradual return of policy to neutral, while noting weak demand and high unemployment argue for cautious tightening.