US nonfarm payrolls came in below expectations, prompting traders to pare Fed hike bets and lift US Treasuries. The 2-year yield fell 6bp to 4.11% and the 10-year fell 2bp to 4.46%. Fed funds swaps imply roughly a 20% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's meeting later this month, down from about 33% before the data. Markets now price fewer than two 25bp hikes through March 2027.

2026-07-02

US nonfarm payrolls came in below expectations, prompting traders to pare Fed hike bets and lift US Treasuries. The 2-year yield fell 6bp to 4.11% and the 10-year fell 2bp to 4.46%. Fed funds swaps imply roughly a 20% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's meeting later this month, down from about 33% before the data. Markets now price fewer than two 25bp hikes through March 2027.

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