Glenmede strategists Jason Pride and Michael Reynolds expect US June unemployment to remain at 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls to rise about 87k, down from May’s 172k. They say that, despite the slowdown, the labour market remains resilient amid low hiring and low layoffs. The pair note the Fed’s focus has shifted toward inflation, so the timing of any policy easing will depend more on inflationary pressure than on employment growth.

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ECB policymaker De Marco said the central bank should not rush into further rate hikes after oil prices fell unexpectedly and sharply. He noted the ECB raised rates in June and its forecasts assumed further tightening, but the recent drop in energy costs strengthens the case for pausing by quickly easing inflation expectations and reducing wage pressures. De Marco said only a second-round inflation effect, de-anchored inflation expectations, or stronger wage demands would justify pre-emptive tightening; those conditions are not currently evident, and with oil back near pre-conflict levels the ECB can wait for the next forecast round rather than risk unnecessary harm to growth. He added that even the milder scenario in the latest forecasts still assumes further tightening, so if incoming data validate that path the ECB may still need to raise rates.