日本6月製造業PMI終值 54.8，前值54.9。

Sumitomo Mitsui Nikko Securities economist Junichi Makino said Japan’s Finance Ministry’s month-long pause in FX intervention is likely a strategic decision rather than tacit acceptance of a weaker yen. He added that market expectations of higher US rates would weaken any intervention’s effectiveness, so the ministry may have judged a pause wiser. Finance Ministry data show no yen-buying operations from May 28 to June 26.

Mizuho Securities economist Ryosuke Katagi said despite global geopolitical risks Japanese corporate profit plans remain resilient. Wednesday’s BOJ Tankan showed firms across all industries and sizes expect recurring profit to decline 6.5% in the current fiscal year, versus a 2.4% decline forecast in the March survey. Katagi said the revision reflects normal seasonality and aligns with the June 2025 projection for the prior fiscal year, suggesting the Middle East conflict has not yet materially affected profit prospects. "These revisions warrant close attention because this fiscal year's corporate profits will affect 2027 spring wage negotiations," he added.