CIBC Capital Markets economist Andrew Grantham says stronger-than-expected April data point to Canada Q2 GDP of about 2.5% annualized. Industry GDP rose 0.5% MoM in April and Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate shows May GDP +0.1% MoM. Grantham said a 2.5% Q2 pace would exceed the Bank of Canada’s 1.5% projection but would not, on an output-gap basis, fully offset Q1’s 0.1% annualized contraction. CIBC retains its call for the Bank of Canada to keep the policy rate unchanged this year.

On June 30 Shanghai sold five plots in its fifth centralized land offering for CNY12.572 bln, generating CNY2.15 bln in total premiums. Land area totaled about 180,000 sq m with planned gross floor area ~285,300 sq m. Three plots cleared above reserve; highest premium rate was 29.63%. Sixteen bidders participated, dominated by central and local state-owned enterprises and municipal investment platforms; participants included Greentown China and C&D International. Analysts said bidding heat remained high and market activity was clear: scarce residential land in core districts saw pronounced premium rises — mid-inner ring parcels around Jing’an and Daning faced intense competition and major developers piled into prime central assets. Peripheral suburban plots in Minhang (Qizhong) and Songjiang Dongjing sold at reserve prices, with regionally focused developers using the sales to steadily replenish land banks.

Fitch expects ongoing oil and geopolitical risks to weigh on credit demand, asset quality and revenue generation at large European banks.