Huatai Securities research note: Escalating Middle East tensions are disrupting
global oil and gas supply-demand, temporarily lifting oil prices and driving
inventory draws; but high prices are already causing demand destruction, and as
supply constraints ease marginally the oil-price midpoint could gradually return
toward equilibrium. In bulk chemicals, capex growth has clearly turned since H2
2025; measures to curb redundant competition, dual-carbon control and the exit
of backward overseas capacity are promoting optimization of existing capacity
and point to a capacity-cycle inflection. In electronic chemicals, AI compute
growth, advanced process nodes, advanced packaging and domestic substitution are
lifting semiconductor-material demand, and overseas supply disruptions could
boost spot conditions for electronic specialty gases and other critical
materials.
