{"title":"Gold briefly dipped below $4,000; banks split on recovery vs deeper
pullback","content":"Major banks revised gold targets after the recent break
below $4,000. UBS remains firmly bullish, forecasting a Fed cut next year, a
structurally weaker dollar and a return to $5,200 within 12 months. Morgan
Stanley keeps a bullish H2 stance and a $5,200 target but warns upside faces
significantly higher resistance. OCBC cut its year‑end target to $5,100 from
$5,350 citing central bank selling. Citigroup cut its 3‑month target to $4,000
while keeping the 6–12 month target at $5,000. Goldman lowered its December
target to $4,900 (from $5,400) after removing a Fed cut this year from its view.
Deutsche trimmed year‑end to $4,800 but left next‑year‑end at $5,200. ING
projects 2026 Q3 average $4,300, recovering to $4,600 in Q4. Macquarie cut
year‑end to $4,300 and sees 2027 average near $4,200, with further declines
through 2030. Capital Economics expects higher real yields to push gold to about
$3,500 by year‑end and $3,250 by next year‑end. BMO forecasts a rebound above
$5,000 in Q1 2027, then average levels near $4,200 in Q2–Q3 2027. Other analyst
views: Saxo says spot gold lacks near‑term bullish momentum and the break under
$4,000 will continue to purge longs. OANDA sees a dollar rally driven by a
hawkish Fed translating into strong bullish momentum for the dollar and a
potential extension of the gold correction toward $3,400. China International
Capital Co argues US inflation may have peaked and current correction is not the
end of the bull market; Recovery may be near. Standard Chartered notes that
sustained central bank buying could limit the pullback, but a material drop in
official demand would materially raise downside risk."}
