ECB Governing Council member Kazimir said damage from the Middle East conflict cannot be reversed overnight and any adjustments must be data-dependent.

ING analyst Bert Colijn said June euro-area PMI still shows overall business activity in contraction, but easing energy prices have reduced price pressures. Input-cost growth in both manufacturing and services slowed and firms’ own price increases were smaller than in May. Weak growth combined with subsiding inf will curb the ECB’s appetite for large rate hikes, as the current inf backdrop is insufficient to justify significant policy tightening.

A U.S. official told CNN on Monday that Washington has established a monitoring mechanism for the fragile Lebanon ceasefire after repeated violations by Israel and Hezbollah that risked US‑Iran talks. The official said Secretary of State Rubio phoned Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Lebanese President Aoun last Friday to discuss consolidating the ceasefire and future negotiations. Following those calls, U.S. Central Command launched the monitoring mechanism to give policymakers real‑time, accurate visibility of fighting inside Lebanon. It was unclear whether this is the same as the “conflict‑avoidance mechanism” Vice President Vance said had been set up on Sunday afternoon Swiss time.