Bernstein says commodity DRAM prices, which rose roughly 4.5x between 2025 Q3
and 2026 Q2, could continue to climb into 2027. That trend has pushed commodity
DRAM ASP per bit to parity with or above HBM. Bernstein estimates higher bit
density and better yields mean commodity DRAM could generate about twice the
revenue per wafer of HBM this year and enjoy materially higher margins. HBM
prices would need to rise roughly threefold to match DRAM on revenue per wafer,
but suppliers are unlikely to push HBM that high because excessive HBM pricing
could harm the broader AI ecosystem and ultimately curb memory demand.
