Iraq’s deputy minister for upstream affairs said Baghdad plans to gradually restore crude output to 4.2–4.3 mln bpd. ANZ expects an initial recovery in the first four weeks of roughly 2.0–3.0 mln bpd. Recovery remains uncertain: ANZ sees a possible 2.0–3.5 mln bpd restoration by Q3 2026, conditional on market stability, while a further 1.0–2.0 mln bpd of supply could be permanently or semi-permanently lost. ANZ added early gains will come mainly from logistics (transport), not production; later

Iraq’s deputy minister for upstream affairs said Baghdad plans to gradually restore crude output to 4.2–4.3 mln bpd. ANZ expects an initial recovery in the first four weeks of roughly 2.0–3.0 mln bpd. Recovery remains uncertain: ANZ sees a possible 2.0–3.5 mln bpd restoration by Q3 2026, conditional on market stability, while a further 1.0–2.0 mln bpd of supply could be permanently or semi-permanently lost. ANZ added early gains will come mainly from logistics (transport), not production; later output depends on upstream wells and refinery restarts. Full restoration is unlikely this year.