Qin Tian, deputy director of the Middle East Institute at the China Institute of
International Relations, said Iran is deliberately slowing and controlling the
pace of negotiations, adopting a wait‑and‑see approach: if a memorandum’s
implementation yields tangible benefits for Tehran, Iran will engage actively;
if implementation falls short and Iran does not receive expected gains, it will
not advance further talks. Qin said Washington has not clearly benefited from
prior conflict or from the current ceasefire memorandum, and with US midterm
elections approaching the Trump administration’s space for large‑scale military
action against Iran is increasingly constrained. As a result, the US appears to
be relying chiefly on economic inducements in the memorandum — proposals such as
an Iran reconstruction fund and unfreezing Iranian assets — to boost Tehran’s
negotiating incentives. Qin added Israel is similarly constrained: it wants to
disrupt US‑Iran negotiations but must avoid antagonizing Washington, limiting
its willingness to pursue large‑scale military operations.
