The latest US jobs report adds an interesting layer to that backdrop. On the
surface, payrolls came in stronger than expected, but the details were more
mixed.
From a market perspective, that mix supports the current positioning. It reduces
the urgency for the Fed to tighten further, while not being weak enough to
trigger recession fears. In the context of elevated oil prices and geopolitical
risk, this is a relatively ‘goldilocks’ outcome. However, it also reinforces the
idea that markets are pricing a best-case balance of resilient growth, contained
inflation and manageable geopolitical fallout.
