Wall Street forecasters estimate the core PCE index (due Thursday) rose 0.39% in
February, which would round to 0.4% for the third straight month.
Because the Feb 2025 comparison is favorable (it was even higher a year ago),
the 12-month rate is expected to hold at 3.0% (also, PPI revisions should pull
January's figure down to 3.0% from 3.1%).
The upshot: before the Iran war shock, core PCE was stuck at 3%, with the
three-month annualized rate even higher than that.
