VILLEROY: HIGH OIL PRICES BRING ECB'S ADVERSE SCENARIO CLOSER

美國至3月28日當週初請失業金人數四周均值 20.775萬人，前值由21.05萬人修正爲21.075萬人。

Iran Conflict & Geopolitics: Trump Signals War End: Donald Trump announced the Iran war is "winding down" and set a 2-3 week timeline to end operations, claiming objectives are "meeting or exceeding benchmarks." Strait of Hormuz & Ceasefire: Trump stated he would consider a ceasefire only if the Strait of Hormuz is "open, free, and clear"; however, Iran’s Foreign Ministry dismissed these claims as "baseless," insisting on a full end to aggression and security guarantees. Trade Policy: Major Tariff Overhaul: Trump is preparing to revise steel and aluminum tariffs, applying a 25% duty to the full value of finished imports (replacing the current 50% levy on just metal content). Markets & Equities: Relief Rally: U.S. stocks extended gains for a second day as Iran de-escalation hopes lifted sentiment; S&P 500 (+0.72%) and Nasdaq 100 (+1.16%) closed higher. Oil Volatility: Brent crude settled at $101.16/bbl (-2.7%) on ceasefire talks, though traders remain sharply divided, with leveraged oil shorts drawing a record $977M in March. Gold Rebound: Spot gold broke above $4,800/oz in early Asia trading, marking its fifth consecutive day of gains amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Corporate & Technology: SpaceX IPO Move: SpaceX has confidentially filed for an IPO with the SEC, targeting a valuation above $1.75 trillion and a potential listing as early as June 2026. OpenAI Capital Shift: SoftBank executed its first $10B tranche of investment in OpenAI. Intel Buyback: Intel agreed to pay $14.2B to repurchase Apollo’s 49% stake in its Ireland fabrication joint venture. U.S. Economy & Policy: Manufacturing Surge: March ISM Manufacturing PMI hit 52.7 (highest since 2022), but input costs surged to 78.3 due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions, signaling potential inflationary pressure. Labor Market: ADP private payrolls rose by 62,000 in March, exceeding expectations (40,000). DHS Funding: Republican leaders reached a deal to fully fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) for the next three years.