Wall Street Journal reports sources say top executives from ExxonMobil (XOM.N), Chevron (CVX.N) and Phillips 66 (PSX.N) participated in the lobbying effort.

On Wednesday the U.S. dollar rose to a two-month high and gold eased after hawkish Federal Reserve remarks reinforced expectations of tighter policy. Dollar strength raised the cost of dollar-priced gold for holders of other currencies. Saxo Bank commodities strategist Ole Hansen said gold remains trapped in a narrow $4,300–$4,400 range and that Fed commentary, its effects on U.S. rates, bond yields and the dollar, plus oil moves, are directing short-term flows. Richmond Fed President Barkin said rate hikes and the prospect of further increases could restrain firms’ inflation expectations and cool price growth without materially depressing activity.

Shenwan Hongyuan says market drivers have shifted in H2 2026 from an AI narrative to recurring US–Iran conflict and energy supply shocks. US political pressure to push down oil pre-midterms to ease inflation is likely to strengthen, and enforcement appears stronger this cycle. Trump has tied a ceasefire and lower oil prices to the midterms and signalled oil could fall after the vote. Supply-side constraints include low inventories, disrupted strait transit, limited refinery flexibility and widening gasoline/diesel crack spreads; the forward curve shows a significant spot premium and the supply buffer is weaker than in 2018, with political price suppression occurring later. Under a neutral scenario, Shenwan expects prices to stay elevated before US midterms (central estimate ~$100/bbl); post-midterms oil could decline quarter-by-quarter in late‑2026 to early‑2027 toward roughly $75/bbl, though inventories and refined‑product bottlenecks will keep the central level above pre‑conflict norms.