Refinitiv reported a senior Iranian official said Tehran would welcome resuming diplomatic contacts if the US takes concrete action.

Shenwan Hongyuan research says the core trading range for the 10-year US Treasury yield in H2 is likely 4.5%–5%, with inflation expectations linked to oil prices the dominant short-term driver. In an optimistic case yields could fall toward about 4.3%; in a downside case they could break above 5%. The dollar index is short-term positively correlated with oil during supply shocks—safe-haven flows and relative fundamentals tend to lift the dollar with oil—and would face further upside if a US‑Iran conflict escalates; after tensions ease the dollar’s core range could revert to 97–103. Dollar trend strength typically accompanies sustained Fed tightening; September’s hike is done, and if future moves are isolated rather than a trend tightening cycle, dollar appreciation risk is more contained. Medium-term, US term premium is likelier to rise than fall as risks shift from cyclical volatility to fiscal sustainability concerns; the Fed faces a threefold challenge of inflation persistence, weak employment, and automatic long-end tightening amid a global savings imbalance. Current US equity valuations are not low; larger or more persistent shocks would inflict greater downside on equity prices.

Weng Jieming, an NPC Standing Committee member and deputy director of the NPC’s Fiscal and Economic Committee, told the 11th Central Enterprises Investment Development Conference that central enterprises should be the main force in future industries but current SOE frameworks are ill-suited to high-risk, long-cycle projects. He proposed designating future industries — including advanced emerging sectors — as a separate category and creating investment “special zones” with longer cycle horizons, diversified equity structures and tolerance for trial-and-error. He urged the state-owned assets regulator to issue special rules: assess returns on future-industry investment funds over at least 10–15 years (5–7 years minimum for emerging sectors) and judge performance on whole‑fund, full‑cycle aggregated returns rather than individual project outcomes during the fund’s life.