July 10 — The People’s Bank of China hosted a seminar on the evolution of the international monetary system. PBOC Party secretary and governor Pan Gongsheng presided. Zhu Min, dean of Tsinghua University’s National Institute of Financial Research and former IMF deputy managing director, presented research on international monetary system evolution, metrics for currency internationalization and digital currency development, and exchanged views with attendees. Senior PBOC and State Administration

俄罗斯本周决定禁止柴油出口，此举搅动了全球能源市场，加剧了柴油的短缺，并推动价格飙升，即便是在不再从莫斯科购买该燃料的国家也将受到影响。柴油在全球石油消费中占比最大，其价格飙升可能波及全球经济，因为柴油用途广泛——从工业机械、农业设备到重型运输和发电，无所不包。据Kpler数据，7月1日至10日，俄罗斯柴油和粗柴油装载量仅为日均23.4万桶，低于6月的40万桶/日和2025年日均约81.7万桶的水平。海湾石油顾问汤姆·克洛扎表示，中东战火再起，加上俄罗斯停止柴油出口以及一份令人震惊的美国能源信息署（EIA）报告，共同将馏分油卖家挤出市场。Vortexa分析师米克·斯特劳特曼表示，俄罗斯柴油出口的减少意味着全球可用供应减少，迫使巴西和土耳其等常客与欧洲国家及其他进口国争夺美国货源。这可能对电力和农业部门产生连锁影响。如果土耳其将其自身产量留作国内使用，地中海地区在夏季用电高峰期间将失去一个发电用柴油来源。柴油价格上涨还意味着，在南半球播种季和北半球收获季到来之前，农民的耕作成本可能上升——巴西和美国中西部的农民将争夺同样的供应。咨询公司FGE NexantECA炼油业务负责人奇林·塔姆表示，当霍尔木兹海峡受阻时，美国成为欧盟/英国的首选柴油供应国，但现在它每向拉丁美洲多发一桶，就意味着少向欧洲发一桶。而且这发生在美国和ARA地区（Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp，阿姆斯特丹-鹿特丹-安特卫普）柴油库存已远低于历史同期水平之际。

Renewed U.S.-Iran fighting this week has sharply reduced vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler data show Thursday transits fell to 22 from 30 the previous day. On Tuesday Iran targeted ships in the strait, damaging a Qatar LNG carrier, and exchanges resumed; since mutual strikes began that day Kpler records only two LNG vessels entering and one exiting. After a June 17 U.S.-Iran agreement to open talks, transits briefly rose to a peak before the ceasefire broke. Shipping broker Braemar LNG said in a Friday client note that owners are withdrawing available tonnage from the area "until the geopolitical picture is clearer", cutting capacity and pushing up freight/transport costs.