IEA monthly report forecasts non‑OPEC oil production will rise by 2.2 mln barrels per day in 2027.

日经225指数日内涨幅达2.00%。

The IEA warned on Friday that a recent escalation in US‑Iran hostilities could overturn its projection that oil markets will move into a substantial supply surplus in 2027. After the Strait of Hormuz reopened in June following a US‑Iran agreement, global supply rose by 4.10 mln b/d but remains 9.40 mln b/d below pre‑conflict levels; at the peak of the crisis the strait’s effective closure cut flows by as much as 14.00 mln b/d. The agency forecasts a 7.50 mln b/d supply increase next year but says that outlook depends on improved transit through Hormuz. The July 7‑8 escalation has clouded that view and could negate the expected shift to surplus.